11/25/2023 0 Comments Tornado touchdown today lafayette inRotational tracks of supercells moving into ArkansasĪt 18:00 UTC (1:00 p.m. Mid-level convective available potential energy values were forecast to reach 1,000–2,000 J/kg. However, the combination of that rich moisture – with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s Fahrenheit – and cooling mid-level temperatures were expected to foster modest destabilization of the atmosphere despite widespread cloud cover. Morning atmospheric soundings from the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex indicated the presence of a stout capping inversion. In the warm sector ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds supplied the northward transport of moisture. At the surface, the expected, stout cold front was progressing southward across Southern Oklahoma. Water vapor imagery the morning of the event depicted a large upper-level trough moving across New Mexico, with accompanied mid-level winds upwards of 80–90 kn (90–105 mph 150–165 km/h) entering Western Texas. The SPC issued a level 4/Moderate risk of severe weather for this region on the afternoon of November 4. For the 1700 UTC outlook, the SPC increased the overall area of risk for significant tornadoes, now including regions of southwestern Arkansas. Moisture, provided by sufficient daylight heating, was expected to mix with the predicted low-level jet, at around 500mb, would further improve the conditions for supercells. With the newer models, more substantial destabilization was expected across the I-35 corridor, giving more favorable patterns for semi-discrete supercell structures to develop. The next day, at 0600 UTC, the SPC expanded the enhanced risk area, while introducing a 10% hatched risk for tornadoes (indicating an elevated probability for strong tornadoes to occur), centered in northeastern Texas, and southeastern Oklahoma. Tornadoes were expected to be most probable with any supercell that managed to spawn ahead of an expected cold front. Elevated helicity, expected to be around 250 m 2/s 2, was expected to be coupled with a 50+ kt low-level jet in the area, providing the necessary ingredients for sustained supercells and embedded QLCS rotations, noting the possibilities for tornadoes, some significant. On November 2, the SPC issued a Day 3 slight risk outlook, which had a rare upgrade to enhanced, highlighting a small corridor centered along northeastern Texas, extreme southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas, and northwestern Louisiana. With some time, computer weather models began to indicate the potential for a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms farther east across portions of Northeastern Texas, Southeastern Oklahoma, and Southwestern Arkansas. The risk for a late-season severe weather event first became apparent on October 29 when the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) delineated a threat area across portions of the United States Southern Plains. Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook for November 4. Two fatalities and at least 34 injuries were confirmed from tornadoes, and an additional fatality occurred near Stilwell, Oklahoma from drowning. Strong winds affected most of the western Great Lakes throughout the day before moving into Canada that evening. An additional tornado embedded within a narrow, but intense line of showers with damaging winds was also confirmed in Illinois the following morning as the system progressed eastward. Numerous PDS tornado warnings were issued as well. Two fatalities occurred in Cason, Texas, and Pickens, Oklahoma respectively. Major damage was reported in Sulphur Springs, Powderly, Caviness, Paris, Cason, Daingerfield, Athens, New Boston, Texas, and Idabel, Oklahoma, with the latter two communities being placed under tornado emergencies. 1 Most severe tornado damage see Enhanced Fujita scaleĢ Time from first tornado to last tornadoĪ significant late-season tornado outbreak took place on November 4, 2022, across Northeast Texas, southwestern Arkansas, southeastern Oklahoma, and northwestern Louisiana with multiple large, destructive tornadoes occurring over a span of several hours.
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